LYC lynas rare earths limited

Howie please look at what is posted 72.89 US WV !!! Remove vat /...

  1. 8,500 Posts.
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    Totally agree the numbers on any day don't mater. that is why I post long term trend charts. What does mater is that prices have fallen 50 %in about 18 months. Revenue is volume times price. Earnings are revenue minus expenses. Everyone loved to point this out when prices were going up. Few even admit it with prices going down. Yes lynas production is up but they have never made their goals when they stated them.

    I was wrong in that SP actual rose after AR. AL did a great sales job and people accepted it. The question is if profit and earnings continue to drop YOY for the next year is there a point where it all falls apart. I think there is, I will admit so far less than I expected.

    I believe Volume is way down. Several things indicate that biggest is China is not shipping close to What quotas allow. How important is this the fact is Prices have declined. Chinese manufactures seen willing to ship at prices that have very small profits. Here are two charts that show this. Lynas h volume has increased a little but not nearly enough to compensate for price decline. this shows up in the change in PE to about 20.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5564/5564558-57010facea965bdf8caf637a97318cff.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5564/5564559-6968854fd8a90e23d47c1f2f67888501.jpg



    Absolutely true! I agree and that is why in post #: 69729018 I said that people were only misleading others posting up daily price changes.
    Now could you tell me what 50% fall in 12 m months does? What NdPrO prices staying in the 450 to 550 range for over 6 months after that fall does?
    i totally agree this is a bottom. What I don't see is when the recovery will start. For reasons I have stated before, manly scare venture money out of market I think China will hold prices here for a while. Do you think they will rise in near future? If yes Why? This is not meant to hurt Lynas, but it does. It is meant to stop new people from entering and balancing China's unfair advantage.
    Did you look at AR pg 59? Inventories went up from 81.5M to 111.9M what is even more important Current asset Inventory which is mostly sellable products went up from 0,851 M to 12.9 M. So yes some inventory was held back but look at what the company puts out for data and you decide if this is that important.

    Just for record, The SAR page 17, puts inventory at 109M which means a very small change in second half (about 3 M). it also says current was 14M so finished product inventory went down in the second half. AL is starting to realy slant her verbal comments it is best to always check out what she says against audited repots not presentation.

    If you want to know more info about this read note D2 in AR or Note 7 in SAR
    Are you trying to confuse people using AR $ and including VAT which is refunded when Any thig is shipped out of the country?
    Howie please look at what is posted 72.89 US WV !!! Remove vat / 1.13 = 64 AU$ yes above USD 60 but not as much as you would think.
 
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$10.74
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Mkt cap ! $10.04B
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Last trade - 09.51am 31/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
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