It is not a hunch. It is math based partially on Facts but supplemented with past events. Short term is down for next 6 -18 months. the AR Facts that I think will happen is Q2 2024 revenue will be down to 700~800 AU $ substantially below Q3 2022. which was $327 With shut down they will probably only make 800T of NdPrO they have ben running about 15XX T. This will reduce profits till nil probably red.
there are things that could make me wrong. AL in the Q&A section of AGM said they would be at 10.5T/YR run rate. I do not think this will happen but because I know it is a key factor in my predictions i will watch it very closely to see if I might be wrong. The second REE prices again approaching a multi year low. Many think they are going to recover soon. I do not. this is another area that I have to keep an eye on because it could quickly make me wrong. Nothing wrong with making assumptions and being wrong. You just have to remember what the assumptions are and watch them carefully so you can change course quickly. I have posted the following charts often but I will do it again for you they show clearly why I am not buying now especially considering lamp shut down and KAL missing another goal of low volume run in September. Now AL is kind of emitting this when she says with latest license changes KAL is not as important.
Combined them both and you have this for a revenue chart which will certainly continue down in Q4 I firmly believe stock price will follow
LYC Price at posting:
$6.35 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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