NdPR price, page-2052

It may be a bottom. We would need a week or to know for sure. We have had several false bottoms in last couple of months. A bottom does little for Lynas it is unlikely they can make any profit at these levels no mater what the volume. COP is more than they can sell for. If we use curent price up to 400RMB / KG WV then even 20 % rise only brings NdPr to 480 RMB. A rise of 50% would bring price to 600RMB which would make a profits. Unfotuantly this would be very unlikely to support a SP of AU$ 6.00 at a PE of 20. Many things have increased COP including increase Depreciation and admin to Utility bills to reagent cost. It is hard to know what impact of this will be till we see SAR and AR for 2024. We may need SAR and AR for 2025 to know for sure. JMO Profits that an sustain a SP over $5.00 are unlike even with a 10% ~ 20% rise in prices

a bottom is an important first step but the average NdPr Price in 2022 which was Lynas best year was 823RMB/ KG WV would take a 100% + rise in NdPr.
It is the old and well understood problem of if anything falls 50% it has to go up 100% to rtn to where it was. Time is constant across rises and Falls and this is why so many books on investing emphasize avoid the big loses, paper or real, is so important. The Fall from 1,100 will be two years next month. will it take 4 years to RTN to that level maybe not. JMO it will be at least 3 years possibly longer. Euphoria over green stocks had PE of over 30 comon during that period but that Euphoria has moved on to AI now. it will move on for10 to 20 years very soon from AI to something else. Seldom does it return foe 10~ 20 years to something it has left. Too many people remember getting burned till time passes.