Reply to aus Post #: 73186010You are correct I did miss out but...

Reply to aus Post #: 73186010

You are correct I did miss out but I stated may reasons then for not buying. They were true then and still true to day but more so.

I did not miss every one. I will admit most in the last ten years but i did very well before then. Fact is I do not care because I know why. What I care about is my portfolio which has more than doubled in last ten years. To you this probably sounds poor. The fact is for the last 20 years it has been more than 75% of my income. I have traveled at my own expense. Given many $ away to charities and my children and a few other relatives. In Fact, I have spent or given away more than I had 20 years ago. I will tell you again A key part of my investment strategy that has dramatically improved my performances is, Avoid large loses. Part of this is avoid companies with high PEs The inverted PE shows earnings % vs share price. Lynas earnings and revenue has been falling for almost two years. JMO I think they will make AU$ 100M ~ 150M in 2024 SAR This will be a TMM EPS of 0.16 or a PE of 37 at a SP of $6.00. What do you see that justifies this PE? What do you see that says Earnings will improve dramatically in the next 12~18 months?

Yes Yes Yes, Missed several major run ups and have admitted this many times. Apparently you can not argue with my data so you keep going back to this. I missed the run up because it was totally based on emotion and still is to day. Instead of worrying about what others have missed years ago maybe should be thinking about what you are missing over last 2 years. I am doing verry well with my current rules. Just for you here is a chart of earnings since AL took over. I do not even consider the negative earnings NC ran up. The 2024 SAR is not on it but they only made AU$39M so it would not realy show up. Lynas in 10 years has only made $392M, including 2024 SAR. Do you think that justifies a MC of 5.3B? if so please explain.



Post #: 73191569

How does flat help Lynas? At a SP of $7.00 and a PE of 20 they need to make 325M / Yr JMO they need a price of 750 RMB / KG WV +230% of today.

could you explain why this is good news Yes it may be a major turning point but look at last 3 years. Way too early to declare a trend yet.


Post #: 7320628
Yes they have increased dramatically in China. Look at subsidies and incentives they are offering. Look at average driving distance / day they drive. they still rely primarily on public transportation. But can China spark a surge in REE demand with their collapsing economy. I do not think so. Maybe you could explain why i am wrong. XI sees RVs as a way to penetrate the WW auto market. He has failed in past. He has to be successful at home first so he will do what ever is necessary to make this happen. It is a good reference point but to use it without looking at ROW does not make sense to me.