China commentary: A brief analysis of the China Automobile...

China commentary:
A brief analysis of the China Automobile Association's passenger car production and sales in March 2024

2024-04-12 17:01:18
According to analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, after the Spring Festival, corporate production and operation activities accelerated, the manufacturing industry boom significantly expanded and returned to the expansion range, and market expectations continued to improve. In the first quarter, the economic operation of the automobile industry started smoothly and achieved a good start.
Specifically, automobile production and sales showed rapid growth, with both passenger cars and commercial vehicles performing well; new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly, with a stable market share of 30%; vehicle exports remained at a high level, providing a boost to the industry. Growth continues to play a positive role; Chinese brands continue to rise and market share remains high.

Unfortunately the supporting stats are in PDF and can't be translated.

Rare earth concentrate purchase prices of China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech for 2024Q2 fell 19% QoQ

Purchase prices of rare earth concentrates by China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech for 2024Q2 issued on the evening of April 9 were adjusted to 16,792 yuan/mt.
Purchase prices of rare earth concentrates by China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech for 2024Q2 issued on the evening of April 9 were adjusted to 16,792 yuan/mt (excluding tax, dry basis, REO 50%), and for every 1% increase or decrease of REO, the tax- excluding prices will increase or decrease by 335.84 yuan/mt, down 19% QoQ. According to SMM calculations, this price cut reduced the cost of Pr-Nd oxide to around 320,000 yuan/mt.
As rare earth prices almost fell to the cost line, the decline narrowed. The cost support has limited the room for buyers to demand a lower price. The rare earth price decline stopped at the end of March.
Entering April, as the inventory of magnetic material enterprises was close to the bottom, they began to purchase. Some terminal demands such as automobiles and wind power installations increased. At the same time, rare earth ore producers held back amid decreased supply. All these contributed to high Pr-Nd product prices in April.

Little wonder MP concentrate exports have fallen dramatically, next months QR will again be interesting to see if they've made any real progress with SX.

Suggestion Chinese cost base ~$43kg.

Some demand recovery triggered inventory purchase, the price cycle has flipped.