There's an interesting commentary on the state of the RE industry here:
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/not-just-beijings-doing-market-factors-are-also-hitting-rare-earths-prices/Their thesis is that the issues go well beyond Chinese market manipulation.
But for me the key quote (confirmed by multiple sources I've seen ) is this:
"The largest rare earth miner, China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High Tech, is facing a 95 percent fall in half-year profit, while other major state-owned rare earth groups, including Shenghe Resources, China Rare Earth Resources and Technology and Rising Nonferrous Metals are suffering steep losses. Rising Nonferrous Metals attributed its losses to the ‘drastic slide in sales prices of its major rare-earth products." Just as AL asserted in the previous Q'ly.
Given the state of the industry I'd say:
1. Lynas' current modest profits look pretty damn good to me and
2. Current NdPr prices are unsustainable without massive market manipulation by China which will likely cause
3. Tariffs and/or subsidies depending on REO origins.
Of course 3 is already very much on the cards with tariffs on Chinese material and massive proposed subsidies for US magnets whose supply chain stays in friendly countries.
I don't think UBS's NdPr price target for Lynas' NdPrO (previous post) is at all optimistic.
(20min delay)