LYC (ASX) NdPR price

Originally posted by Chemist1959: ↑

The prices of all rare earths (and many rare earth companies) have experienced multiple speculator-driven bubbles. These charts begin at the end of the politically-motivated post-2010 "Rare Earth Export ban" that China claimed it would impose on Japan and THAT event spiked prices.

I use base 2019 prices for my investment purposes.

These are the JULY 2019 prices:

Current reported 2024 pricing:
Neodymium Oxide: 51,000-53,000 USD/mt
Praeodymium Oxide: SAME
Dysprosium Oxide: 242-300 USD/kg
Terbium Oxide: 690-730 USD/kg

ONLY Terbium has seen a real increase from 2019 (pre-speculation price) due to new uses/demands.

The question of course is where will prices go from here?

Personally I did not expect the prices to return to 2019 levels, but we had COVID and Putin and China had many problems in addition.

Demand is lower than I expected primarily because CHina has not been able to open markets and ROW is not going to build the number of charging stations needed for conversion to EVs and concommitant banning of ICEs. Why not? Because they can't afford to give China a 15-year head start.

China might be able to force the issue but they will be legitimately countered with regulatory blockades based on the unsustainable and criminal methods they continue to employ for obtaining the rare earths, the graphite, and so on. China is an environmental nightmare and the world wants a greener path if they must get rid of their beloved ICEs.

Demand is the key. Duh. The CCP is not supporting REE prices, they are simply manipulating them and now the CCP has taken full control of inventories and if I were them I would stockpile; regardless they do not sell meaningful volumes of magnetic metals to ROW regardless price because there isn't anyone who is in a position to buy same if only because, LOL, they drove them out of business.

I expect significant price pressure developing once Japanese magnetmakers are properly supplied and not before.

Again, I am accumulating LYC because I believe this to be one of the best times in years to do so. Perhaps another 5-bagger over next 5 years, more in less if Lynas continues on growth path and BAIN's Proterial nee Hitachi Metals' play (now private with a US with foundry with NdFeB rights) pans out to service US manufacturing.

There are lots of reasons to expect REE demand-driven price gains going forward.

https://apnews.com/article/energy-global-wind-report-2024-74dd788b62c429edd004332808440b60

Personally I find the smaller-motor segment very exciting and expect an increasingly urban population will continue to dump ICE scooters and rickshaws and last-mile delivery vehicles to adopt them.
https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-280-million-electric-bikes-and-mopeds-are-cutting-demand-for-oil-far-more-than-electric-cars-213870

It makes no difference to me what REE prices are now; they won't be this low next year imho.

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Originally posted by rvajna: ↑

Super pumped. Where do you think the low is?

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I do agree that REE prices are at a low. Look at my forecast on my chart. Prices stayed in my June 2023 range for about 6 months then went below it. I still think they will be in my 2024 forecast range shortly but right now they are a below it.. Trouble is even if NdPrO price go above the high end of my most recent forecast Lynas will not support a AUD 6.50 price at a PE of 30. REE prices will recover. Lynas SP will recover of this I have absolutely no doubt. The real question is how low does Lynas SP go and when will it recover. Many on this board say I am a down ramper and say Lynas will go up, which it will but never say when.

After Dot com many companies diapered. those that survived took 8 to 10 years for SP's to recover. Look at AMZN historical price chart. After 2008 banking crises where many banks disappeared many stocks still have not recovered look at BOA and MS and JP.

Many label me as a down ramper but REE prices have been lower than I have predicted for nearly 2 years. Lynas Profits have been less than I predicted for 18 months. I will admit SP has been above what I have expected. I understand why and still think lynas will still come in line with standard metrics. we will have to see if optimism in the green market starts to fade more than it already has,

Here are some metrics for the ASX. Lynas is way above theses metrics for both averages and current performance. Most of theses companies pay dividends which Lynas does not. Lynas is this high only because of speculation which will fade if it does not start performing better soon.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/statistics