The prices of all rare earths (and many rare earth companies) have experienced multiple speculator-driven bubbles. These charts begin at the end of the politically-motivated post-2010 "Rare Earth Export ban" that China claimed it would impose on Japan and THAT event spiked prices.
I use base 2019 prices for my investment purposes.
These are the JULY 2019 prices:
Current reported 2024 pricing:
Neodymium Oxide: 51,000-53,000 USD/mt
Praeodymium Oxide: SAME
Dysprosium Oxide: 242-300 USD/kg
Terbium Oxide: 690-730 USD/kg
ONLY Terbium has seen a real increase from 2019 (pre-speculation price) due to new uses/demands.
The question of course is where will prices go from here?
Personally I did not expect the prices to return to 2019 levels, but we had COVID and Putin and China had many problems in addition.
Demand is lower than I expected primarily because CHina has not been able to open markets and ROW is not going to build the number of charging stations needed for conversion to EVs and concommitant banning of ICEs. Why not? Because they can't afford to give China a 15-year head start.
China might be able to force the issue but they will be legitimately countered with regulatory blockades based on the unsustainable and criminal methods they continue to employ for obtaining the rare earths, the graphite, and so on. China is an environmental nightmare and the world wants a greener path if they must get rid of their beloved ICEs.
Demand is the key. Duh. The CCP is not supporting REE prices, they are simply manipulating them and now the CCP has taken full control of inventories and if I were them I would stockpile; regardless they do not sell meaningful volumes of magnetic metals to ROW
regardless price because there isn't anyone who is in a position to buy same if only because, LOL, they drove them out of business.
I expect significant price pressure developing once Japanese magnetmakers are properly supplied and not before.
Again, I am accumulating LYC because I believe this to be one of the best times in years to do so. Perhaps another 5-bagger over next 5 years, more in less if Lynas continues on growth path and BAIN's Proterial nee Hitachi Metals' play (now private with a US with foundry with NdFeB rights) pans out to service US manufacturing.
There are lots of reasons to expect REE demand-driven price gains going forward.
https://apnews.com/article/energy-global-wind-report-2024-74dd788b62c429edd004332808440b60Personally I find the smaller-motor segment very exciting and expect an increasingly urban population will continue to dump ICE scooters and rickshaws and last-mile delivery vehicles to adopt them.
https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-280-million-electric-bikes-and-mopeds-are-cutting-demand-for-oil-far-more-than-electric-cars-213870It makes no difference to me what REE prices are now; they won't be this low next year imho.
(20min delay)