First Mikaj said the reason production is low is the Lanthanide restrictions. This is false they have had license to go to 1800KT a Q since 2019.
In fact his own chart shows no restriction since that time. Why would they spend time and money on NEXT if they could not use it?
We read this differently but I do see your point. Key word for me are " Variation" PLS tell me what changed.
"Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC, OTC:LYSDY) (“Lynas”) is pleased to advise that wholly-owned
subsidiary Lynas Malaysia has been issued with a variation to its operating license which allows the
continued importation and processing of Lanthanide Concentrate from Lynas’ Mt Weld mine in
Western Australia at the Lynas Malaysia facility. The amended operating license is valid until 2 March
2026."
Go back and listen or read to AL comments in CC after this Does that sound like restrictions still in place?
Ok if your right then Lynas just wasted a ton of money expanding lamp. Their production is severely limited. Till KAL can supply lots of concentrate to Lamp. Why would AL in Q2CC promise a run rate 10.5 by end of CY 2025. If true why have you not sold all your stock? No material from KAL has been processed by lamp according to AL in Q4 CC. It is on site production but I think they were unwilling to risk Q4.
Regardless Q4 production dropped back below Name plate In Q4. AL told us they took a couple 100 T out of inventory. Why would they do this looking at her Q3 statements on price If they were not having production problems.
Yes AL always has a Justification for low production and Mikja does a great job of parroting these. Simple fact is they have lost major market share as market has grown because they have not grown with it. Even if I am wrong and Mikaj is correct How after 12 years in production. does being at name plate justify an investment at this time? I want to buy, it is an exciting growing market. With this track record they have to show me some steady proof for at least 2 Qs. Historically production is usually down in Q1 because of cramming in Q4. (Many companies do this not a hit on Lynas) We will have to look again. NdPrO prices are at levels they were at in late Jan 2024, and maybe rising, when AL assured us they would be at a 10.5 Kt run rate at end of CY2024 In Q2 CC we will have to wait and see.
Is this a record you should want to buy into? NC Promised they would be at name plate first in 2011 then in 2013. Then 2014 then he was gone. JMO he left because Japan said no more money if he staid which is why he spent Millions of AUD searching unsuccessfully for other sources.
I predict that Lynas will make AUD 0.10 for FY 2024. The analysis for yahoo have lowered their estimates substantially in last 4~5 months to AUD 0.08. Can you point to anything specific that will make this wrong between now and SAR, the 2025 AR? You will see that Analysia now have great earnings predicted for FY 2025. They had great earning at this time a year ago for FY 2024. Here is summery tell me what you think
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LYC.AX/analysis/ All the data in the next two charts is from Lynas or SMM I would really like your opinion of what this means for LYC SP in next 6 ~ 12 months. Yes it is historical. People that do not look at history are very likely to repeat it.
Note only 2022 Q4 was smaller than the following Q1, Covid.
I am glad I think too much and don't just blindly believe AL. I think it is a great asset. Again you pile on the insults and show little why I am wrong. I think you should think more deeply about your position. KAL is more than 2 X over cost and severely lower capacity and more than 18 months late. Texas was supposed to be done Late 2022 Pg 28 of 5 year plan may 2019. Now after many slips Grond breaking is scheduled for late 2024. Why should I not take things like this into consideration when listening to people like you say just believe what Lynas says? They promised a run rate of 1800KT of NdPr products in 2018 they reached it in only one Q so fart. How does this influence your thinking? Apparently not at all.
AL use to love to say " ALL projects on time, and in budget" can you name one that meets this criteria, There are a couple like PDF. But that was 100% contracted out with little involvement by Lynas. Only thing that went bad was the first site which was selected by Lynas before contract was signed. Contractor looked at it and rejected it. Lots of fancy words from Lynas about this but fact remain it was a poor selection when there was a great one right next to Lamp. I guess Lynas did not see it. They did say how much better it was than the one they picked to justify the change.
Actually above price 7/25 RMB 353/ KG WV Price to day RMB 3 73. 5.6% Still has a long ways to go. need about RMB 750 to have a stock price of $6.50 at a PE of 30. Note I only put Friday prices in my data that is more than enough.
Looks great. Do you remember how encouraged you all were last April? That is why I have to see a lot more. When I updated my prediction in June I really thought it would average over 400RMB. Sorry for up ramping again. Lynas and REE prices just keep underperforming what I expect. I did lower my prediction after one year but I may be wrong again on high side. I will start paying better attention when NdPr price is over 450 RMB WV My old low prediction. Still way below what Lynas needs for
OK profits.
(20min delay)