Great post. couple of facts a few really great M&As receive great press. Facts are they usually do not work and stock holders in both companies do poorly. A merger of a company that has problems seldom fixes that problem. I can say based on my investment history a merger between MP and Lynas will not work. Always a possibility but odds are against it. Two negatives in same market seldom results in a positive. Yes it would make them a powerhouse ex China but still tinny compared to China
Remember Brokers and investment bankers only make money when you trade. They can make money when you do nothing if your shares are in a margin account. By using them for collateral or loaning to shorter. Most brokers just open Margine accounts for customers. More flexibility but people seldom look at down side.
I have never bought bounds in over 50 years of investing. A few years ago My broker who never recommended bounds before Encouraged me to buy them. The interest is not bad 5 ~ 12% and I do trade so there is also a capital gain when interest rates fluctuate. My portfolio is now approaching 40% bounds. I have a few treasuries but mostly Corp bounds with a rating od ABB or better. Like Stocks to avoid losses you have to research the company the bound is for. I buy discounted bounds on secondary market. Which is very similar to stock market.
This is just another idea not trying to suggest you do it.
I think the REE market will become a great market. I think Lynas will be a free world leader in that market. The question is not how will Lynas do in the future. The question is what has the best odds of increasing net worth over time? Holding Lynas through some really bad times. Or getting out investing in something flexible and getting back in when things are better. People keep thinking in terms of getting out forever or holding for ever. I have been in, out and in of many REE stock for over 16 years. This includes Lynas many times. JMO the idea you have to be either blindly loyal or hate a stock is really a great way to lose money.
Do you have a definition of "unsustainable" If you mean NdPrO stays below 400 RMB WV I totally agree If you mean it will be above 700 shortly I totally disagree, Words like unsustainable just are worthless without a definition. They do sound great.
Great example of being blindly loyal. One of the Key symptoms of this is when Stock is not doing well point out someone worse. A better approach is do some deep research into what you own.
Your best odds of increasing net worth over time is get out watch closely for things to get better and rebuy. Is it guaranteed? NO. But the over whelming odds are it goes down a lot more in next 6 to 12 months before it goes up. 15 Analysis Have reduce there EPS estimate from over 20 cents to 8 cents over last 4 ~ 5 months. there Estimate for Revenue 4 ~5 months ago was AUD1.1 B which they ratcheted down rapidly in last few months. Actual was 477M If you look at next year they are forecasting a very big growth for both revenue and earnings.
Analysis are usually high way out. Low estimates just do not make money. High estimates bring in business. The do not want to look like idiots so they ratchet down, if needed, as actuals get closer. More to be learned from watching rate of change and direction that looking at their actual numbers.
************************************* All the US economy is starting to show signs of overshooting on the down side. Lynas Like many other stocks has become lightly traded. A year ago they were trading about 6 M shares a day. Today the average is 3.5 M and 2.9M today. Light trading raises overall volatility and cases the stock to react more to good or bad news than stocks with high volume. Comparing to total shares 3M / 935M is 0.3% expect volatility.
LYC 5 year beta is 1.03which is ok industry average 0.8 its one year is 1.3. Plan volatility into your trading.
Example LYC July 30, + 19, July 31+1 Aug 1 -18. Figure out what you want in a month or two. ignore recent changes and just do it.
LYC Price at posting:
$6.11 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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