A few points Jay:
- The situation is completely different than tariffs OPEC crude. For a start the US is a net exporter.
- The first round of tariffs are already here: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-to-impose-25-import-tariffs-on-chinese-rare-earth-magnets/
- The choice is to buy Chinese magnets or Lynas/other ROW oxides. There's a clear impetus in the US to stimulate the whole supply chain.
https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/Neodymium%20Magnets%20Supply%20Chain%20Report%20-%20Final.pdf as well as bipartisan support for a bill proposing $30/kg support for magnets sourced completely from a 'friendly nations' supply chain.
- Yes these incentives will take time to 'build out'. But in the meantime why shut down while they're still profitable? In particular, one big plus for Lynas as a supplier is certainty of supply. I do appreciate they're doing some stockpiling for better times which also makes sense.
- We do agree a merger with MP makes no sense at all. But when they go broke let's go to the fire sale this time!
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