Great post. Only correction and it is minor the great results...

:Do you even read your own articles. The tittle clearly says Jan 2026 for rare earths. nothing below says any thing different. how do you say "- The first round of tariffs are already here:" Just think Between now and then there will be a change in US president, There will be elections for all representatives. 1/3 of senators will be up for election. Chance of this Tarif not being changed is very small. May be reduced or eliminated, or be increased above 25% no one can say for sure.

Also it is very unlikely that this Tarif will result in large increased prices for Lynas product. Take a good look at pass tariffs to effect prices. Trump 6 years ago implemented a across the board 25% increase on all Chinese's goods It is still in effect today. Yes it caused some small changes, they are small.

Some areas of this tariff took effect immediately please point a couple out and tell us about the actual impact. Are you pinning your hopes on something that MAY happen in 2026, Whose impact is very uncertain?


You may be pinning your hopes on this raising LYC SP some time in 2026. But right now a weaking economy and continued low REE prices says the overwhelming possibility is it goes down before it goes up.

Great post. Only correction and it is minor the great results were 2022 AR. So that was just less than 24 months ago. Some know that 2023 AR Was down substernal from 2022. Few realize that even after adjusting for 6 months the 2023 SAR was also way down actually slightly lower than AR 6 months later. Both Revenue and earnings. This and what was going on in international economies, clearly pointed out by the "Economist", should have been a big flag to sell Lynas when stock was in the AUD 8.50 to 9.50 range. This is not hind site I pointed out both multiple times back then.

Of course I am labeled as a down ramper and even a broken clock is correct twice a day. What I would like explained is how can I be a down ramper when every prediction I have made in two years for LYC profits and revenue and REE prices has been better than actual performance.
The only one that was lower was 2024 revenue and it was low by <7%. Which I consider very good for an estimate made and not changed 4 months before. I am still standing by my 2024 profit estimate of < AUD 100M in spite of AL taking out NdPrO from inventory when she said in Q3 she would be expanding inventory.

The only thing I down ramp is people poorly thought out dreams and that is fine with me.

I know you block me I believe you have since you bought MP while I was buying puts. You thought my arguments were crazy and not worth listening to. My puts did great, how did your stock do?

Ford and BYD will come back the question is not if, but when. Ford has many fundamental problems. JMO they need a management change to improve. I had a big holding ,for me, in Ford. I have never held BYD but watch them. They have inventory stacked up all over world. With recent Chinese gov stimuli they will probably continue to over produce (time will tell). Like Lynas they will survive and be a dynamic growing company. The stock has a very good chance of going lower before higher. I do not trade on long term possibilities. I trade on probabilities for next 6 ~ 12 months. I have done much better for the second half of my 60 years of investing ignoring long term when making buy hold sell decisions. A few exceptions, if it is a dividend paying stock and it's cash flow and balance can cover the future dividends till things improve I may hold it. If I have a large CG in a stock this will also lengthen the period i look at. Nothing is black or white.