Up 10% since previous bottom (just off the chart, ~July 18)

Rare earths prices seen rebounding in second half of 2024 -analysts

By and

February 5, 20247:57 AM ESTUpdated 7 months ago

"The price in China of praseodymium oxide, one of the most widely used rare earth elements, fell 34% in 2023, while terbium oxide and neodymium oxide tumbled to their lowest levels since late 2020 last month, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) data showed.

However, further downside for rare earths is likely to be limited as prices, particularly for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, used in permanent magnets, fell 38% last year and are near the production cost level, said SMM analyst Yang Jiawen.

"NdPr oxide is likely to see an 800-metric-ton deficit globally in 2024, flipping from last year's 6,600-ton surplus, Guolian Securities wrote last month.

"We expect extra supply to be more or less cleared by end-2024, as demand catches up with supply through continually increasing electric vehicle sales and wind turbine production," said analyst Willis Thomas at CRU Group."

All is going according to plan, lol. The increasing NEVs (BEVs plus PHEVs) and wind turbines are mostly being built in China at the moment and that ramping may not materialize in an orderly fashion.

SO now all shorters have multiple catalysts to worry about. And while they were undoubtedly relieved to see the Apr REE price spike get turned away (drove some to frenzied short-selling I imagine), something similar is happening again now, and it is happening as multiple analysts thought likely.

Another April-like REE price spike of 14% on top of the current moderated up-move could easily create a similar stock price up-move.

All but a few shorters are currently underwater and current losses could easily get locked in as we approach 2025 when many things will come together for Lynas. Shorters need to buy back 100+ million shares where typical trading volume is just 3 million. The pressure is building. If they don't get any hopeful signs (REE or LYC stock price drop, significant renewed Chinese market concerns, etc), I am just going to become more hopeful.