AS I said in Post #: 78720980 and several times since APR 2, I think SMM prices will soon be useless for predicting Lynas profit. Simple reasons is Tarifs will cause surpluses in China and shortages in the rest of world so SMM will not Reflect what Lynas receives.
I looked forward to the Q report. First the prices on page 3 are of no value they are the prices inside Chinna. "NdPr Oxide China Domestic Price (VAT excluded)" I then looked at what Lynas Received for a KG of REE, top page 3, good news it went from $49 to $50. But this was through end of March so it did include a little tariff talks but nothing of the APR 2 disaster. I really would like Lynas to do better so I can buy it. It is why I am here. The following morning, I started to think. NdPrO prices rose a little, NdPr volume went from 1291 T to 1509 T, but revenue dropped from AUD 141M to $123M, page 1. I needed to investigate further. The sales volume on top of PG 3 of 2434T was more than Total produced 1911 T so they took product out of inventory which should help over all numbers, since costs were expensed in Q it was made. The reason is easy to find it is in production table on Pg. 4, % NdPr NdPr went from 49% of production to 79%. I then calculated the price different between La&Ce and NdPr. This takes lots of guess work because of two types of La and Ce. I came up with a difference to NdPr prices of about 18 to avoid endless arguments I rounded down to 15. Using Working all these numbers I came to the conclusion That what they received for NdPr went down. Here is my table of the numbers on page 4 with %. I also included the simple average for NdPr for each Q. Please do your own analysis and let me know if you think I am in error. Don't forget there is a 90-day book to bill delay, according to AL.
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LYC
lynas rare earths limited
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$10.47

AS I said in Post #: 78720980 and several times since APR 2, I...
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Last
$10.47 |
Change
-0.270(2.51%) |
Mkt cap ! $9.794B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$10.50 | $10.66 | $10.41 | $55.61M | 5.303M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3850 | $10.45 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$10.48 | 20895 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 3850 | 10.450 |
2 | 1347 | 10.410 |
4 | 1220 | 10.400 |
2 | 44231 | 10.380 |
3 | 15527 | 10.370 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
10.480 | 13412 | 2 |
10.490 | 18845 | 4 |
10.500 | 14673 | 3 |
10.550 | 3000 | 1 |
10.580 | 3000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 31/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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