A number of forum followers and lurkers have been here longer than the MAX time chart on top. I have.
At the far left is 2012, when prices were higher and volumes were lower than they are today. I remember all the spikes.
The last two years have been less volatile with prices remaining $60-$90 USD/KG; prices all derived from Shanghai.
I think prices can go way up, to be honest; their value is clear and compelling and critical.
The latest one-month SMM chart for Nd per metric ton (divide by 1000 to compare above, also there is a 13% VAT added above).
THIS CHART IS DOMESTIC CHINA PRICE, the SMM online default fixed display.
My take is these prices are almost irrelevant. Both the Japanese and Lynas BOD have long been aware that the domestic Chinese market is not an appropriate pricing proxy. It's a starting point at best. Lynas can't go under so it must be sustainably paid now.
Lynas and Japan are tight but Lynas will (and could easily with good capital) exceed its annual obligations to the sogo shosha and move to support ex-Japan (incl competitors of Japan in some cases) in a fuller manner with promises of bigger profit if they move to do so, as in offtake agreements, etc. Would Japan try to bar them from doing so by keeping prices down? Or will those who do business through the sogo shosha find ways to transfer the metals to ex-Japanese industries? I don't know how they work through such issues, but Lynas and the sogo shosha have very different goals and futures. The middleman for Japan should not be in the middle of Lynas.
The SMM prices reflect the Chinese CCP-planned economic situation as well as the overall economy. It does not reflect the existential fears of the free world looking at losing out completely if the REE elements monopoly is NOT broken, and the only sure way to do that is by supporting ex-China suppliers of which there is ONLY ONE. And it is not truly broken if Lynas et al can only supply 10% of global REE demand; the other 90% will be sent to domestic manufacturers in China. Did anyone else hear that Byd shipped more vehicles than Toyota in the past year?
I suspect we will be hearing more about REE pricing in the next few quarters as I do not believe Xi will relent and that would be a game-changer. XI is a top dog right now, much prep has been done to push higher in world order. Likely will try to force US to acknowledge certain realities to pump up his hometown support. Big possibilities for a spike; keeping powder dry or liquid is essential imho.
go Amanda, go Lynas, gltash
(20min delay)