NdPR price, page-484

Solid analysis and understanding by EddieB and Chemist1959, especially on understanding where the first mover advantage is for Lynas - the midstream processing part of the value chain. I can tell you not many institutions and sell-side analysts who cover LYC actually get this point as they are overanalysing the upstream mine. To reinforce this point, whilst there are a few REE developers desperate talking about developing new monazite deposits in Australia and elsewhere in response to this structural imbalance as well as where NdPr oxide prices are, can anyone tell me news of new development of concentrate to oxide processing separation facility being seriously under consideration outside of China and ex-LYC and Mountain Pass ? I have not found any in the past 12 months - and the bottleneck I believe lies in the processing expertise know-how. As i understand it, most experienced engineers who know how to build and run these processing plants reside in China and ex-China, there is a genuine lack of expertise. On this note, one thing that i disappointedly pick up from LYC AGM is the retirement of a key executive at LYC. Unless he has health issues or lifestyle choice to retire, the executive looks too young to retire and his expertise (assuming there is at least 2-3 years of non-compete clause in his employment) will be highly sought after given his involvement in the Kuantan facility as well as overseeing the initial phase of the Kalgoorlie new facility build.

Sure, like most chemical processing - the process can be learnt over time - but this will come at significant costs blowout and time. In this regard, it is my long held view that LYC will have a first mover advantage of being ex-China ROW NdPr oxide of choice for at least another 3-4 years conservatively. Therefore, aspiring new vertically integrated players like Iluka will likely to struggle initially. Others who are digging up monazite - the only real place they can sell is through the Chinese processors - therefore, their new monazite supply does NOT help alleviate the concerns of over-reliance of China as a REE oxide supply for ROW.

And i agree with Chemist1959 view - that those who kept looking at the rear mirror view about NdPr oxide mean-reverting to its historical levels of around US$20-40/kg, like some sell-side analysts do - is completely ignoring the current geopolitical realities of the tension between China and ROW as well as the true environmental management costs of REE processing. Therefore, in the next 3-5 years at least, I see US$100/kg as the base price level support, with the possibility of the pricing trending above its previous all-time high set in April 2011 a realistic proposition in the next two years (assuming there is no left-field broad-based economic demand collapse).

Yes - Lynas had a very good run in the past 12 or so months. However, my sense is a lot of institutional money has not yet gotten into this and they are probably waiting for a decent pullback to throw money in.

All i can say is as a LYC shareholder since 2017 - thank goodness the LYC board has stood firm last time from the cheeky takeover bid from Wesfarmers, as it would have been a "daylight robbery" of them to be able to get the keys to LYC's assets around the price they bid for it back in 2018-19.