@Spekul8, nice to see your reply.Like many long term holders in...

@Spekul8, nice to see your reply.

Like many long term holders in the HC Community I've been following Nearmap with great interest for years.

If you were previously challenging the $10 mark then yes, as I've previously shown, even if NEA went above $5 right now, it will immediately be apparent as the most expensive stock out of the WAAAX group and I'll definitely be alerting others to take extreme caution in getting into a position.

But in regards to a critical mass for Nearmap's potential market size, well, this is the beauty of Nearmap, the sky is truly the limit.

Now I know this sounds cheesy, after all, how do we evaluate the sky?
And if we cannot evaluate the sky then how much is too much when we are paying for Nearmap shares?

The answer to this question depends on how "forward looking" each investor wants to be and ultimately this will then tie closely to the premium being introduced into today's share price. And sure, someone can try to work out a fair value for NEA shares base on some very complicated formulas and economic assumptions, but as a simple investor myself, let's just use the revenue figures again.

Now I know you say the bottom line is income & earnings, I'm not disputing that at all, but just for a second, if you believe that Nearmap will carry on getting its high margins from all its sales. and that its SAAS business model scales well with constant cost expenditures while growing multiples of revenue, then income & earnings will all grow alongside revenue, then even just the current AUS 2D product revenues of around $50 million will be replicated into many multiples in the US. Remember even in AUS we have not yet reach market saturation (even for the 2D product yet), so with 10x the population, it is possible to derive a $500 million revenue from Nearmap with the US reaching its maturity.

Anyone with a compound growth rate calculator will tell you that it takes just 6 years of 46.78% pa compounding growth to get from $50 million to around $500 million.

So taking the same Nearmap P/S ratio of 26.87 (as calculated in my previous post), if Nearmap was turning a revenue of $500m in 6 years time then its market cap should be around $13.435 Billion, and its share price should be around $30.05

This is all good & well, but don't forget our initial $50m revenue was based simply on the AUS uptake of predominantly 2D products only (& not even from a fully saturated AUS market), as Nearmap develops & introduced other product mixes & tools (e.g. Oblique, Panorama, 3D products, Data Insights, Artificial Intelligence Querying capabilities etc...) & many more geographical regions we might actually see the revenue accelerate even FASTER !

So I believe it is entirely possible that we could reach a $13.435 Billion dollar market cap even sooner than 6 years.

This however is only the beginning, further into the future, I see the existing Nearmap Structure split into 3 seperate divisions & perhaps even 3 separately listed company entities:

- 2D Photo & 3D Surface Mesh Data Products & Services
- Hardware Design & Processing Infrastructure Service
- AI Data Insights & Analytics Division

This is what the blue sky looks like, as you can imagine, it is mind blogging BIG and it is MASSIVE !

So, will growth slow, of course it will, but when you consider the time it will take to grow both the AUS & the US market into saturation, and then half way through, we grow Europe, and then half way through we growth Asia, then it is easy to see that GROWTH will continue for at least another 10-15 years, and by that time I don't even want to guess where the Market Cap or the Share Price of NEA will be.