So being a bit bored before XMAS, I decided to pull out an estimate of what might be coming our way this Feb'17 - see table below - hope it displays correctly. I assume no surprises and business as usual as there has been no update from the company. I expect 5% revenue growth as slight increase from 2% last year half and slightly below 7% market growth. I think it is fair - I try to be very conservative not expecting 70% revenue increase due to the unexpected China order.
Inventory will increase to 4.5 mil average after Spring Flush after the June reported 3.4 mil impacted by shortage and this according to the P&L rules as far as I understand it correctly will have positive impact. Please someone correct me if I am wrong here but thats whats has been done before - opposite if inventory decrease. I assume some increase in raw materials even it was mentioned in agm that there are cheaper contracts on the way and quite good cost one in place currently. Also I take into account double the impairment as Senior Management decides to upgrade more automation to deliver cost savings (who knows, might repeat 0.6 mil from last two years?)
Again, I base my assumption as there are no unexpected circumstances as during AGM it was stated that company is travelling well. So this is business as usual scenario.
Happy to hear other scenarios and options. Call me optimist here but who can I be if I own shares lol. Good luck to us all
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
| 1 |
|
Dec-16 |
Dec-15 |
assumption |
| 2 |
Revenue |
50,360 |
48,053 |
5% |
| 3 |
Change in inventories |
1,078 |
-525 |
from 3422 to 4500 - positive impact on P&L if inventory increase |
| 4 |
Raw Materials |
-31,727 |
-30,086 |
from 62,7% to 63% |
| 5 |
Employee Benefit |
-6,328 |
-6,328 |
same |
| 6 |
Depreciation |
-1,697 |
-1,651 |
10.70% |
| 7 |
Impairment |
-1,200 |
-576 |
more improvements |
| 8 |
Finance Cost |
-30 |
-277 |
reduction |
| 9 |
Other Expenses |
-3,000 |
-3,003 |
same |
| 10 |
Profit before income |
7,456 |
5,607 |
|
| 11 |
Tax |
2,311 |
-1,779 |
|
| 12 |
Net Profit |
5,145 |
3,828 |
|
