Nearest the Pin

OK - there has been some outlandish numbers thrown around as to what could be the half year sales number - not to mention some stupid bet made by some intellectual challenged poster.

It is time to put up or shut up. The nearest to the pin competition is now on. The winner gets 6 months of bragging rights and shall be lauded throughout the land (including NZ & China) as the smartest and most insightful poster of A2M. Their posts shall command respect and always receive a thumbs up - they will be always known in future posts as "the insightful one".

So the rules are:

1) Numbers in $NZ.
2) In millions to one decimal point (ie $235,100,000 shall be posted as $235.1m)
3) If two numbers the same then whoever posted 1st wins on countback
4) No range - this means you Marko! One number and one number only.
5) No rational reason is required but it would be nice to justify your number so as to make this thread worthwhile rather than just a pure guessing game.
6) I determine who wins - but I promise to be as transparent as a politician claiming a travel allowance.
7) The game is to be played in a positive spirit, ie justify your own numbers - It is not to critique and rubbish other posters.

So I go first:

My half year number is $241.3m. It is based on the October ytd number of $155.2m plus an additional $86.1m for Nov & Dec. Infant Formula for China will be the key driver of growth. While many other posters will say I am being very pessimistic in regards to the growth I am of the view the exceptional October number (ex factory sales) is reflected in the market share coming through in Nov.

I look forward to your numbers (and hold up on buying the cherries - they are very expensive at the moment).

Cheers

slc4me