Not long now but how the month will end is anybody's guess.
I feel positive for the long term but have some serious misgivings in relation to the company giving us something new in the update.
If they have something new I just can’t believe that they would sit on it after lighting up the market with the media release three weeks ago & then wait until the very last day to tell us what they knew three weeks ago.
If they havnt got anything new after that then they need a good old fashioned kick in the collective arses, but then again if there is one thing they do know how to do & do well it is to piss off shareholders.
It’s pretty hard to dress the chart up as anything but bearish at first glance, but there are a positives happening that do not show up on a chart that help drive it, such as the promise of an update this month & only 3 trading days of that left and the assumption that a large amount of the buying has been by brokers or small funds despite there being no evidence to prove that assumption. If true though they have would have done their research first. I think that could be credible given the volumes since the media release and would lead to much more broker buying if we do get a decent update.
We have retraced 50% off the highs from the start of the breakout on the day of the media release, hit a predicted downside target, bounced off that & followed up next day by a higher close, again with credible volume.
Based on those events I would say that the chart was mildly bullish short term & ready for a rally.
The resistance is $0.205 – 21 which taking the current expectations of the market into account should not be any great barrier to overcome. (if the market agrees with me of course)
If that is the case then we should see a bit of volatility and increasing volume starting monday.
I have posted the daily chart in an inverted format again as I think it is easier to see things sometimes.
The chart in this format looks like a share that has peaked, tried again to go higher and now is ready to go lower & retest $0.205 which in this case would be higher.
I have to say though that if we were not waiting in anticipation of an update my opinion would be that the reversal would more than likely be only a temporary pause in the uptrend (downtrend) given that the resistance was broken with large volume.
The weekly chart volume shows that there were 58,947,289 shares bought going up as against 22,313,058 so far coming back down.
That is only 38% sold which I believe would in the most part account for the traders and brokers manipulations
Of the 62% not sold I would probably expect that the greater portion of those would also be brokers but buying for their clients.
One thing I do not want to see on the weekly chart is another lower red candle, at this stage we could be seeing the early stages of a rising 3 bullish pattern forming though I have seen them work with two small candles instead of the three.
A normal retracement after a breakout is 50% that is at $0.18, the low at $0.185 his week should be near enough.
Anyway.
The scenario I would like to see next week is a steady rise up through the box center to $0.22 - 23 on Monday then get stuck into $0.24 - 25 Tuesday. An hour or so trading Wed morning to push the sp through the last high at $0.26 and up to $0.28 before a trading halt.
Ahh what a sight that would be.
However given the companies poor record on reporting, running ahead of itself and just generally only announcing something when they think the sp has fallen enough for their purposes I don’t know if the market will agree with my bullish outlook & just continue to push the sp lower.
Good luck for the week ahead.
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