re: northern energy (nec)
JJ I actually think they may do a little better than the initial 7 - 10mt JORC resource. The geological report in the prospectus talks about 10 - 20mt in the hatched area, if this is the starting point then I think the company is well positioned to leverage from a solid resource base before the main game even begins. If they get to say 40 - 50mt then project should sustain infrastructure development. I also hear wispers that the Melbourne to Darwin rail line is proposed to run in close proximity to Ashford, if this rail line goes ahead than I would expect significant risk to come out of the play and the shares to go up by a factor of 5x ( do the sensitivities). If they can prove 10 -20mt coking coal in say the first 6 - 9 months the shares should have a significant re rating in the market.
Your review/analysis was first class, but I think your assumptions in relation to a plant/capital costs etc are high but at least they prove the financial model.
Glad to see there are some people of reasonable intelligence that come to this website instead of the run of the mill lemmings.
