WSA 0.00% $3.86 western areas limited

Mainholm, with no disrespect intended but the simple fact is...

  1. 6,072 Posts.
    Mainholm, with no disrespect intended but the simple fact is that WSA is a victim of a very low nickel price. You can go on and on about concentrate, quantities, payables, grade and quality etc etc but the fact remains that not even WSA can deliver profits at current prices. That's a worry? They can hedge but how far out have they hedged and if you look closely at the nickel price movement and $AUD movement you can clearly see that hey have had little relief from the $AUD in the last few months.
    It's my opinion that it will take years for WSA to recover to even $3.00 It won't be long that they will be drawing down on their loan facilities to keep it all going.
    It really is maths101 and has been since mid last year if nickel price was to remain at low levels (which it has, in fact gone lower).
    These single commodity producers are only good in specific commodity bull markets.
    You don't have to be an Economics graduate or Einstein to work out that WSA was going lower and likely to continue to go lower.
    It's currently overvalued in my opinion. If nickel price remains at these levels for another month the shorters will be all over it, knowing very well that they cannot make a profit in the second half and WSA needing to tap into their loan facilities. Then watch it go close to $1 when investors commence the "give up and return some capital" phase.
    I personally think it's GAME OVER for nickel producers for quite a while (years!). But let's see.
    This transition that China is attempting is going to take years and in the meantime commodities will suffer.
    JMT.
    Last edited by Valin: 29/02/16
 
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