I was replying to a question so I don't know why you are prattling on.
Anyway, the WSA SP was $2.11 on 29 Sep 15 and now it is $2.08. With all your doom day calls it doesn't look to me that the SP is likely to capitulate down to $1. Regardless, it has been a great trading stock for the past couple of months. So I hope you know how to trade it?
Game over you reckon? Well some analysts are suggesting the bottom might be in for the nickel price. Will Adams at Fastmarkets concludes his recent analysis thus:
"Prices have recovered from the spike lower but resistance is being encountered overhead. Sentiment remains bearish but producers are underwater and prices are showing some upside progress. We also feel the demand side could kick into gear should prices rally while the market swings from being destocked to restocking, which is a special trait of nickel and stainless steel. But a catalyst is needed for that. Even if we get a rally, it may not last too long while LME stocks remain high and do not yet appear to be tightly held but this may be changing as well. So we wait to see whether this is a rebound, suggesting the break lower was a false one, or a test of the breakdown levels – i.e. how much supply is still up around $8,700-8,930."
Here is a link to the article:
http://www.fastmarkets.com/nickel-a...ower-or-rebound-to-test-overhead-supply-76236
Personally, I have no idea where the price of nickel is heading, but I doubt that the game is over for WSA. I also note the shorters have decreased from over 15% of stock shorted down to around 13%. Is that a new trend that might be another factor to consider before suggesting game over?
Anyway, it doesn't pay to lock in concrete neither positive nor negative sentiments when it comes to the commodities market. It can turn on a dime due to the amount of extra cash floating around in financial markets looking to play in the 'game'. It is called "financialisation" and the markets have never seen such excessive speculation in the derivatives markets, especially in futures.
Did you know that nickel futures are one of the few metals in contango at the moment? What does that mean for the PONi in the coming months?
I suggest there is plenty to ponder before declaring "game over".
Cheers
