Negatives

ok, it might seem a bit odd a holder starting a negatives thread. But one concern I do have is that whilst the quality of the posts and discussions on the RAC thread is very high, all of the posts and posters are positive, and there is nothing contrary.

Perhaps that's justified. Low risk, big upside, low mkt cap.

But I have seen many times over the years where a HotCopper thread is all super positive and bullish. The sp rises lots, and then suddenly the rug gets pulled away and a load of mums and dads are left holding stock bought at much higher prices. I'm aware that they should have done their research etc etc, but when all is positive on HC some people do get sucked in.

So negatives...

Well one could be that the sp was under 5c in July, so for some the sp is now 8x. That's obviously not a negative if you bought cheap, but it could mean that some hefty profit taking could happen.

The mkt cap is $44m, which is by no means high compared to some biotechs, but there are some others which look much cheaper imho. I will use ptx as an example. I do hold ptx, but this is not to cross promote but just to give as an example.

ptx have two drugs in trials, one of which has produced good data against three different cancers. The other drug is targeting cancers with no current treatment available or in clinic (as far as we are aware). Hence only a tiny bit of efficacy is needed to be shown to gain approval. They also have a CAR-T program, which is a very exciting new area for cancer therapies.

ptx's mkt cap is $20m, but they have $9m in the bank, so their enterprise value is $11m, rac's is about $43m.

Another negative one could say is that rac are a one trick pony. Although it must be said that they have heaps of historical data, proving that their drug is safe and effective.

The last negative I can think of is that Bisantrene is an old school treatment. A chemotherapy, where healthy cells are attacked as well a cancerous cells.

There are some pretty exciting oncolytic viruses and immunotherapies in development and in trials at the moment, where the patient's own immune system hopefully kicks in and fights/kills cancerous cells. The safety of such treatments is therefore very high.

Big pharmas are pumping lots of money into these new treatments. Would big pharma be interested in looking back at a new chemo? As counter argument, the data for Bisantrene is very good, and there will certainly be a market for some or many years to come. But then Bisantrene will also take some time to get to market.

ok, that's my post finished. On other threads when I've played devils advocate I got quite some abuse from posters. But I think with rac there will be a more mature response (I'm just imagining a big raspberry sound now).

cheers