Auto,
It's early days and all i know right now is don't listen to anything I have to say!
My expectation from looking at earlier trades (couple of days ago particularly) was that someone like baker was exiting and the sp was likely to experience plenty of pressure. Not so it seems as the sp is holding ok.
As for Rand,
If we assume that
- Rand isn't locked into existing contracts(transport, processing etc)
- Able to pull in house all required elements to execute their plan of reducing cash costs (above, plus mill mods etc)
- The gold mine isn't subject to flooding (plenty in SA are)
- GDO actually have done thorough dd & retain appropriate staff
- Cash flow able to support GDO through early stage development / early stage issues
- List goes on....
Bottom line is yes, they could turn a tidy profit based on what we know via the gold component alone.
For me this is a uranium play with a gold asset attached.
Sold to us as a gold asset with and uranium asset attached.
At first glance, i would try and get the gold component to cover itself as quickly as possible, pad out time to understand the mine better without sucking any cash, place the U component in a holding pattern to repackage & re list when U prices come back (avoid the capex/plant black hole and release cash / debt) and never take my eye off ME. Goliath should still have sub nigel producing gold and be cash flow positive. Not all the targets are deep for megamine. Should not be too hard to offload and release some more cash to accelerate vent. Well one option, from a thousand.
Always easier said than done.
Mav
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