NET 0.00% 0.3¢ netlinkz limited

Please keep this thread for 5 years - so that we can come back...

  1. 233 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 127
    Please keep this thread for 5 years - so that we can come back and revisit if NET is still floating in XTX - ASX All tech index -- ---

    I look at the tech companies in Australia, the valuation of SP is very different to other industries -

    A2M's EBITA is A$300m a year plus CAGR of 20% - the share price valued at $13.5B.
    XERO's EBITA is A$17m a year plus CAGR >30% - the share pice valued at $13B. (currently 4800% PE)
    APT is similar to XRO - and valued at $12B.

    so this tells us that a TECH company doesn't need to be in high EBITA to get to $B valuation - but a CAGR > 30%.

    Let's assume due to the Corona virus - iLinkall becomes a certified foreign company to be contracted by the Chinese Gov to protect their infrastructure and storage of information - the implementation takes time for next few years, and hence each year we can grow from 3m VINs in 2020, a 60% growth rate (new in industyr) - which becomes 5m Vins in 2021, 8m Vins in 2022, 13m Vins in 2023 and 21m Vins in 2024. (this is just happening in China and 20m VINs is not alot comparing the size of economy and gov departments).

    Technically next year onwards, 99% of increase in revenue = net profit. How should we value this company? i note the PE valuation has correlation to CAGR, so say NET has CAGR of 60%, then the PE is 60 times on each EBITA. in this case, every 1m VINs increment = $720m valuation - if we get the median of the 5 years growth = 720m x 8 = $6B (EBITA of $100m).

    If NET rollout to whole ASIA and Europe - what would be the valuation to come in??

    I am thinking to keep some of my shares for sell at AUD $50 per shares in 5 years time. ($100B valuation)
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add NET (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.