hi team
i am looking for some expert/knowledgable help & feedback
i apologise for my ignorance but I do not know what NPV is. the internet states it is discounted cash flow. is it as simple as that?
below is my attempt at cash flow analysis, which could be very wrong or have many errors
the NPV figures per well I obtained from the CEL presentation
OK, here goes:
Ellenburger has 1.6Tcf. Single Well 10 BCF/Well NPV ~ US$10M/well
At a 40% recovery rate, Ellenburger has 640BCF or the potential for 64 x 10BCF wells for a total NPV of $640m
For Canyon Sands/Unconventional Hybrid, 1000 feet of sand gives a NPV$6.7m for a 10Bcf well
At a 40% recovery rate, Canyon Sands/Unconventional Hybrid has 3Tcf or 300 x 10Bcf wells. The Net Present Value (NPV) is 300 x $6.7m = $2 billion
The total potential cash flow is $2,600 million dollars
Starting 20 wells may cost $50m. Raising $50m at 50 cents per share give an extra 100m shares, adding to the 320m shares & options currently on issue or soon to be issued.
If CEL ends up with say 450m shares on issue, the cash flow per share over time in the long term equals $2.6b.
Subtract $600m in CAPEX for another 300 wells and the long term cash flow comes to $2 billion divided by 450m shares = $4.44 per share.
As said, all feedback & comments are welcome
However, based on yesterday's announcement, it appears I am underestimating the cash flow:
"The Montney play has been the subject of recent corporate activity, with Talisman selling 50% of 51,000 net acres to Sasol in January 2011 for C$1.05B demonstrating the value thatcan be created through the exploration and appraisal of these types of reservoirs."
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