Back in 2004 average price $5.77 Production 5.7 Bcfe
EBITDAX $US 25.8 Million
However 2009 is should be better than 2004 Getting higher prices and higher production probably EBITDAX will be well into the 30s (IMO)
In any case with little exploration costs it is possible to pay off a large chunk of its debt
Gas will probably have moved up then - if it hasn't the industry will be heamoraging meaning both supply will be dropping and costs for exploration and production would be well off today's levels - I think it is more likely Gas will be high
I agree PSA needs to look at why it not had exploration success - maybe Michael L Harvey will help address that. I'm sure PSA knows they need to address that. They want to improve the SP
But despite what you have said (& I am willing to listen) I still believe come 2010, PSA will have had a profitable year paid off at least 50% of its nett debt - prices higher than now - and an industry ripe for the picking.
Possible improvements to this scenario It may have picked up a bargain priced aquisition It may started exploring later in the year with exploration costs lower (maybe even learnt how to find reserves again :-)
Like you said it has been from "0.12 back up to $3.45" It may do it again - I'm willing to risk 0.14 for the chance it becomes $1.00 or maybe history will repeat and it goes to $3.45 again.
PSA Price at posting:
12.7¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
