I used to work for this company (not as a travel consultant) for 15 years and still have a soft spot for it....even though I got made redundant 5+ years ago.....maybe a blessing in disguise?
I think the share price will drift a lot lower as their main business is basically just travel related. All their global operations basically have no income and a lot of overhead (rent, wages etc). I chatted to one of the guys I used to work with who is still there.....all contractors will be let go and then they will look at the full-time employees next (they have asked staff previously to use annual leave and also shorten there work week). This is sad as I still have friends there.
If you look at the GFC, the share price dropped below $4 and hit $70 at one stage, however this is very different.....their income has been stopped. If they get a cash injection from the government, they are still not making any money. With the GFC, security was heighted but there were barely any restrictions but people were free to travel and holiday.
I'm still holding all my shares at ~$16 average as these have paid for themselves over the years with dividends. I will buy more shares, but only when I know they'll be selling travel (no ban in place), virus infection rates are lower (with some curable means) and the price is lower (not sure how low).
Once this virus blows over, I think a lot of people will be busting to travel as they've had to hold off or had it cancelled.
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