NEU cf PBT

I think it is interesting to contrast the stark difference in market sentiment between these two developers of a drug to treat neurological conditions.

In the lead up to PBT's two Phase II trials the SP, over an 8 month (or so) period, soared from low 20's to $1.30 plus, resulting in a m/c of around $600 m. The failure of the Alzheimer's trial - leaving the previous positive Huntington's trial as its one success - saw it plummet back to the low 20's. It is now struggling at around 13-14c, as it prepares for the long journey of a Huntington's Phase III. IMO, had the Alzeimer's trial succeeded, the m/c would have immediately ballooned to (and held) well in excess of $1 b.

On the other hand, NEU was very sedate in the lead up to Rett's, and the approx doubling of the m/c was short-lived and we are back from whence where we came. Now, we are in the final stages of the lead up to FX and IMO, there is going to be no mad rush to get in before the results are announced. No six-fold increase in SP as in PBT's case.

I acknowledge that although both are in neurological arena they are, at face value, different stories. Thus one could expect different market perceptions. But that is in the lead up, and the lead up only. IMO, post results the perceptions of both will be much the same. Thus, if FX is unsuccessful we will drop considerably below 8-9c range. However, if successful, the market will become fully aware of the huge potential of Trofinetide (as it was pre-results with PBT2) and I would expect a m/c of $1 b very quickly.

Then, of course, we have the short term, enviable follow up of TBI to either potentially save our bacon or blast us into the stratosphere.

I am convinced that the market is in a deep sleep, approaching the unconscious, regarding this company. I am hoping that over the coming months hindsight will make it acutely aware of its lack of foresight. Otherwise it will have slept on in blissful ignorance of the opportunity that it did not miss.

IMO, anybody who - in spite of the abysmal record of some recent clinical trials in the Aust biotech scene - is prepared to take a speculatively handsome risk vs reward investment on the ASX, should strongly consider this company for a potential short term multi-bagger. On a completely anecdotal basis, is Aust biotech not due for a monumental success? Well, this one could be it.