I think this is a perfect summation of the situation and matches...

I think this is a perfect summation of the situation and matches my sentiment.

Imagine for a minute we live in an alternate universe where all knowledge of Neuren was wiped from our memories and we happened to come across the company with fresh eyes. What would we find and how would we value that company and its prospects? Is it something that we would invest in or would we pass on it?

The company has a drug that is being sold under a licensing agreement and has a heap of money in the bank, with more coming each quarter and some medium-term inflection points that will provide additional revenue - Canada, Europe approval/sales, Asian approval/sales and a share of a PRV voucher. The revenue pipeline is strong, and they don't need to raise capital to keep the lights on. All wonderful signs and ticks in my view.

Management have also shown themselves to be highly competent and run the company efficiently, if not somewhat understatedly. There is scope for improvement in that regard to broaden the awareness, given I am 39 years old and in this alternate universe, I have only just come across this company. All things considered though, the company looks to be well run and very well setup for success - another tick!

Then I look to the pipeline and future prospects. They have another drug currently being trialled, which is superior in every way and the prospects for that drug are truly revolutionary - given its seeming applicability in Orphan and non-Orphan conditions. It looks like they have a game changing compound that can be trialled in a huge range of conditions, and they are basically free carried to explore its potential and reap the benefits - whether that is solo, in conjunction with others or whether that comes via a sale. Whatever direction they take, it would seem very likely that the company will make a tonne of money. Again, wonderful signs and all ticks!

Can they get it through P3 and to market? They have done so once (with a partner), so they have some experience in that space and know what is involved. Given the Orphan nature of the indications, its quite possible that the FDA will apply a similar approach to 2591 as they did to Trofinetide and require that the P3 trial replicate the P2 trials. If that is the case, another tick!

The broader market does not impose any insurmountable challenges and/or restrictions. There are no real regulatory/legal impediments, most big pharma/Invesment companies are well funded and have capital to deploy and while there are some competitor drugs in some conditions currently under review, there are challenges with those treatments that are not present with 2591. This is still a tick but given the advanced nature of some competitors, its a "light green" rather than a "dark green" tick.

With fresh eyes, what conclusion would I reach? Simple, everything is coming up Milhouse!!

The fundamentals are amazingly strong and would scream buy to any sensible value investor, especially at these current prices. If I lived in this alternate universe, I would back up the truck and buy as many as I could possibly afford cause I would understand that this company, if managed well, could materially change my financial future and that of my children.

Now back to this universe - why do we find ourselves here, with a SP heading back to pre-PMS levels with so many positive fundamentals?

Its a really good question and despite the multiple attributions on HC, I don't think any single reason explains the current SP. Objectively speaking, any of the following, whether singularly or in combination, can explain the current depressed SP - and I am sure there are more that are not on this list.

Global financial market uncertainty, tax selling, wars, better short-term investment opportunities, short selling, risk appetite reduction, manipulation, potential acquisition, lack of trust in management, lack of trust in the science, failure to meet revenue guidelines, pause in PWS trial, competitors with better products, lack of near-term inflection points, disapproval of company direction, lack of company share buy-back, stock illiquidity, fatigue and the list goes on and on.

There are a range of reasons, and I don't think anybody definitively knows why the SP is where it is. I certainly don't.

I do however sympathise with Fatigue as a reason, which in my mind can prompt people to look elsewhere for "better" opportunities. In the universe I live in, I have knowledge of the company and its history and the associated scars that come from being a long-term holder.

Scars from watching great announcements inexplicably trigger share price falls, scars from watching the share price fall in the absence of any announcement whatsoever, scars from watching parties manipulate the share price through overt and covert means, scars from watching countless broker reports state the company is worth much more than its current value, scars from the odd company misstep (TBI trial design still stings), scars from reading the frustrated and angst driven comments on HC. Lots and lots of scars. Bio/Pharma investing is no joke!

More than ever lately, I can feel my scars ache. I look at the current SP and while some part of me is tempted to cash in my chips and sail off into the sunset with a good profit.

But then I stop, step back and think about the alterative universe scenario, which serves to "quality check" for my investment decisions.

1. I am here for 2591 and have been from the beginning.
2. The fundamentals HAVE changed, but positively so.
3. The company is well funded and is free carried for a crack at 2591.
4. There are no real impediments to success and subsequent SP appreciation

The only uncertainty, and it relates to my feeling of fatigue, is whether we are in this for another 6 months or 6 years. Whether we opt to sell for a Reata equivalent in 6 months or whether we sell for many, many multiples of Reata in 6 years.

Lots to consider for all holders but I stand by my alternative universe view - everything is coming up Milhouse!