NEU has been freaking me out the last few months. Its fallen 40% in the last 7 weeks!
I had a really good look at the chart. I couldn't believe that it was trading at $1 as recently as Nov 2020! I actually checked with Yahoo because I didn't trust the Chart! My first trade was 10 years ago at $0.092 ($1.84). It was a great trading stock because of its volatility! And it always recovered. At some point I realised NEU's potential and started accumulating. I wish I had actually just accumulated and never traded NEU.
So here is the Weekly Logarithmic. Its been in a long term rising channel since May 2021. It rose 1,120% in 2 years from $1.20 to over $15 for a Disallowed. It then drifted out of the channel to $10 November 2023, then to close to $26 in November that same year! And now back to $13.56 as we are all painfully aware aware! Unless you are a shorter!
A point I am trying to make, as much for myself as anyone, is that this is an extremely volatile stock and always has been!
Whereas the fall of 40% this last 7 weeks is painful, here are some comparisons as per the Weekly Logarithmic spanning 7 years.
Hard to believe, but back in February 2020 a massive fall of 66% from $3 to $1 in just 7 weeks!
Then back up 85% to $1.85 in just 3 weeks!
Then back down 45% to $1 again in 29 weeks!
Then back up 53% to $1.53 in 10 weeks!
Then a Disallowed over the next 2 years!
Then back down 32% from $14.75 to $10.
Then back up to its all time high of $25.95 in just 9 weeks (200%)
So where to from here?
The RSI (Relative strength Index is at a super oversold level of 20.15. I had to look back for 4 years to find a more oversold figure of a whopping 15.6. It is certainly worth noting that a shitty volatile stock and or market will just over ride technical indicators as they are all lagging. The recent NEU price action has been so aggressive on the downside and totally lackluster on the upside! So my blue arrow is not saying NEU will go up, only that it is indicating a very oversold price and it may go up from here.
You cant catch a falling knife and the professionals will always be saying that its a mugs game to average down.
Personally I'm sitting tight and riding this out. If it does get down to the $10 range I'll beg borrow steal to be a mug and average down.
And finally I will ask a rhetorical question. Which pain is worse. The pain of riding a stock down, losing so much money only to sell at its lows. (Just to relieve the stress). Aargh, short term relief! Or the pain of then watching every day as the stock recovers to all time highs!
(20min delay)