Very algorithmic behavior on lower time frames, which makes it...

Very algorithmic behavior on lower time frames, which makes it arguably clearer. Orders being engineered and filled, slowly building a position with efficiency. Trend strength is clearly to the downside which will attract short side biased momentum trades until there is a meaningful switch of moving averages.






Obviously no one knows the future but I'll put forward an idea for a path based on what I believe about market structure.



Nothing goes up forever without taking a break to replace / attract new participants. The breakdown happened after the 3rd leg and some traders strictly adhere to various theories around such wave concepts - a self fulfilling prophecy perhaps. In my own observations the 3rd breakouts don't tend to have as much fuel behind them as most are in heavy profits and use the influx of liquidity to exit.

Given the interest and maturity of the price the register will be heavily moderated by large interests too. Efficiency is their goal while making profits in each direction. Their timelines are long with the use of many sophisticated trading and information edges. Trying to arbitrage their edge in your favor by using time adds risk in my view (more opportunity for an emotional decision as draw down balloons or lengthy consolidations test your resolve).

or maybe a nice announcement comes out and the left side of the chart can be dismissed.