NEU share price is lower than a year ago, despite of having successfully concluded Phase 2 Trials for three additional rare diseases (Phelan-McDermid, Pitt Hopkins and Angelman), also NEU will have around $200m cash more than a year ago thanks to additional milestone payments of US$100m (~AUD$153m) to come by March 2025.
Reata's acquisition was very high, especially compared with NEU current valuation (Biogen offered US$7.3B for Reata Vs Neu's market cap of US$1B).
So far DAYBUE and Reata's drug, quarterly revenue are tracking very similar.
Phelan-McDermid (PMS) is going to the phase 3 trail (positive phase 2 results and using same underlying NNZ-2591 as DAYBUE), PMS' market opportunity is around Three times of the DAYBUE's.
Current cash burn rate is not high, around $18m per quarter, royalty payments plus interest on cash are about to cover the expenditure. So by March 2025, NEU cash position would be around $335m after tax (considered NZ tax loss claimed). The cash burn will be higher as the phase 3 starts. The phase 3 trial is also 13 weeks, so the expenditure is manageable from current cash reserve, we may see the company deploying more cash to buy back.
From next Monday, $50m buy back starts, base on the daily average volume for last 12 months, NEU could buy up to around 63k shares per day (10% rule), that should underpin share price, imo.
Here's Canaccord research note, price target $29. (Only take a face value as we have to assess the stock ourselves)
All imo, and have a good weekend ALL.
NEU Price at posting:
$12.47 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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