Neuren - Cracking the $200m m/cap again., page-62

It seems as if an imminent acquisition of Neuren by Acadia is accepted by many here as a fait accompli.

I question both the likelihood and desirability of this  occurring, based on the following:

Acadia’s financial position

Acadia’s net loss for the last half year was $140 million.  At 30/06/19, Acadia had $74 million cash on hand and $307 million in investment securities. This follows a capital raise of ~$300 million in late 2018. The company says it expects to continue to incur operating losses for the next few years.

Is Acadia likely to be willing to pay the kind of money NEU shareholders might expect?  

Does this sound like a sound financial position from which to purchase another loss-making company with no approved products for, say, $500 million?

What would be the reaction of Acadia shareholders?


Acadia’s global capabilities

Acadia has no regulatory experience or sales force outside of the US and has said itself that if it wants to commercialize Nuplazid in markets outside of the US, it will more than likely need to establish one or more strategic alliances.

Furthermore, the company has shown no haste to launch Nuplazid in Europe. It toyed with the idea of submitting a marketing application there three years ago but put that on hold and is yet to revisit the idea.

Therefore, what chance would trofinetide have for a speedy path to market in markets outside of the US?


Acadia’s management of risk

Acadia’s very low upfront, heavily back-ended deal for North American trofinetide rights, though not popular with the market here, does reflect prudent risk management on Acadia’s part.

Acadia management has stated only recently that they believe it’s very important to focus on business development in a disciplined way, as they said they had done to date.

Is Acadia likely to suddenly change its disciplined approach?

How would the US market view this sudden change in approach to managing risk,  a change not reflected in Acadia's previous market advice?


Neuren’s stated aims

How would selling the company to Acadia be consistent with Neuren’s guiding principle of “speed to market for the families affected by these debilitating conditions”.

How would selling the company to Acadia be consistent with Neuren’s stated aim of “securing maximum market value recognition for…. trofinetide and NNZ-2591 worldwide.”