1) Changes relating to DAYBUE Commercialisation
■ Updated the timing expectations for penetration and persistency in the US and ROW
■ Updated the price expectations benchmarked to management commentary
■ Updated timing and ramp gradient of trofinetide launch in ROW
2) Changes relating to NNZ-2591
■ Increased probability of success (Phase 2) for Angelman syndrome to 100%
■ Increased probability of success (Phase 3) for Angelman syndrome to 65%
■ Increased overall probability of ACAD receiving NDAs for NNZ-2591 in Rett syndrome and Fragile X syndrome to 22% each
■ Pushed back the potential launch of PMS to CY 2027
We also note that NEU has paid A$34M in income tax (out of a A$46M Liability) in Q2 2024 and had A$213M in cash and short-term
investments as at 30-June-2024.
The net effect of these changes is a reduction in our valuation of NEU from A$25/share to A$22.50/share. We note upside risk from:
the positive trend in the DAYBUE US commercialisation metrics (we conservatively sit at the bottom of current ACAD guidance); the
progress in ACAD's ROW launch preparations for trofinetide; the consistent (albeit open label) NNZ-2591 results — supporting further
development; and the possibility for corporate activity. We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation.
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Last
$15.87 |
Change
-0.360(2.22%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.034B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$16.33 | $16.37 | $15.78 | $7.016M | 438.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
15 | 1102 | $15.86 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$15.87 | 238 | 9 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 493 | 15.860 |
16 | 1213 | 15.850 |
6 | 502 | 15.840 |
4 | 354 | 15.830 |
6 | 479 | 15.820 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
15.870 | 650 | 7 |
15.880 | 400 | 5 |
15.890 | 318 | 4 |
15.900 | 501 | 7 |
15.910 | 274 | 2 |
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