1) Changes relating to DAYBUE Commercialisation
■ Updated the timing expectations for penetration and persistency in the US and ROW
■ Updated the price expectations benchmarked to management commentary
■ Updated timing and ramp gradient of trofinetide launch in ROW
2) Changes relating to NNZ-2591
■ Increased probability of success (Phase 2) for Angelman syndrome to 100%
■ Increased probability of success (Phase 3) for Angelman syndrome to 65%
■ Increased overall probability of ACAD receiving NDAs for NNZ-2591 in Rett syndrome and Fragile X syndrome to 22% each
■ Pushed back the potential launch of PMS to CY 2027
We also note that NEU has paid A$34M in income tax (out of a A$46M Liability) in Q2 2024 and had A$213M in cash and short-term
investments as at 30-June-2024.
The net effect of these changes is a reduction in our valuation of NEU from A$25/share to A$22.50/share. We note upside risk from:
the positive trend in the DAYBUE US commercialisation metrics (we conservatively sit at the bottom of current ACAD guidance); the
progress in ACAD's ROW launch preparations for trofinetide; the consistent (albeit open label) NNZ-2591 results — supporting further
development; and the possibility for corporate activity. We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation.
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$15.92 |
Change
-0.310(1.91%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.034B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$16.33 | $16.37 | $15.85 | $5.700M | 355.9K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 11 | $15.92 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$15.93 | 213 | 11 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 11 | 15.920 |
8 | 512 | 15.910 |
12 | 2740 | 15.900 |
3 | 323 | 15.890 |
5 | 1118 | 15.880 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
15.930 | 265 | 13 |
15.940 | 448 | 8 |
15.950 | 1090 | 6 |
15.960 | 354 | 5 |
15.970 | 840 | 7 |
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Steven Gourlay, Managing Director and CEO
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