At current projected revenues for Retts syndrome and assuming 60% margin it could take about 5 years to pay back $1 billion. However, since the drug is approved, subsequent indications are easier to develop and would cost less for Acadia to conduct. There is also the IP extension practices pharmaceutical companies employ when an exclusivity period comes to an end in addition to securing new exclusivity periods for each new indication approved. Given Acadia has the infrastructure in place as a mature business, such an acquisition is less onerous to them than it is for Neuren to develop.
Failing that, they could sell the asset to someone else?
Neuren Media and Analyst Coverage, page-1325
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