Yes, there is likely 10x the potential patients of Retts if you include the yet-to-be-disclosed new indications.
If average royalty on Daybue is 15% long term, then anyone owning NNZ-2591 could likely achieve 3-4x this net margin (i.e. 45%-60%). Note NNZ-2591 is also much cheaper to manufacture & distribute (20x more potent, no cold-chain distribution). Gross profit margins on orphan drugs are typically >80% vs 16% for pharma industry average.
Additionally, no question that the side-effect profile of Daybue is holding back its market penetration - both in reaching full $ dosage and also number of patients/patient carers willing to risk the side-effects. Just read Mellan's posts on how hard it can be. I'd say a 50% uptick in peak patient numbers (number willing to try + number on full dosage + higher retention) isn't unreasonable.
So we have 10 x 4 x 1.5 = 60x the profit potential.
Discount 50% because its not approved yet (this is conservative considering NNZ-2591 is actually 90% of the way through the de-risking journey) and we have 30x Daybue.
If Daybue is worth $10 a share (the number given by a few analysts), we get a current now value for Neuren of approx $300 a share.
Any which way you look at it Neuren ain't worth $50 a share...
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