Or we can look at a value today, as a minimum in my view.
Acadia forecast sales for Daybue of 350 million US. Say our new indications for NNZ2591 are 5 x greater, therefore achievable realistic sales of $1.8 billion. Say 50% profit on sales = $900 million. Allow 50% risk = $450 million profit per annum
Allow PE of 20 = $9 billion. Take away development costs of $200 million per indication gives you $8.2 billion - divide by 125 million shares on issue and you get $65USD or $100 AUD
This is really crude and conservative and gives no value to Trof, but shows where we’re at in my view - we are a long way from here today and I struggle to see how we will reach these heights in the near term.
The further we take the drugs through the trials, the more we reduce our risk and the less any suitor will need to pay for trials themselves so obviously the price will rise from here, unless something goes awry.
In saying all the above I’d still take $50 tomorrow to close this chapter, but this is a selfish view on my behalf.
NEU Price at posting:
$14.41 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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