Would welcome some rationale as to why $500 is unreasonable.
I agree this number seems large, but $500 to $1,000 is simply what drops out of a standard NPV DCF model when you plug in realistic validated numbers.
All the numbers I've used in modelling come from validated sources. I'm as surprised as you that numbers this large come out.
The only way you can get numbers like $50 is by choosing unrealistic values (e.g. a 5-10% chance of FDA approval, or a patient penetration rate of under 5%).
And in fact, this is exactly what analysts like Barrenjoey appear to have done to get down to a 'target price' of $29. If you read their analysis they've ended up choosing unrealistically conservative in an attempt to get their model to spit numbers vaguely close to the current share value.
NEU Price at posting:
$14.39 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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