Fair point re TO premiums. I agree its hard to see how we could get a $200 TO offer, let alone $50 with the share price where it is. Which is why a TO may be some way away as nashezz has suggested.
Neuren's obligation to shareholders to fully realize the value of their assets will mean they'll presumably need to find a strategy to bridge this gap over time. I don't know what that strategy is. However, one option is to not do a TO and simply license out, or go to market themselves, or some combination.
Barrenjoey's projections were based upon Neuren going to market with PMD, PDD and Angelman. They forecast Neuren's EBITDA at $2 billion by FY2030 growing at 50% per annum. See below.
These numbers were still based on highly conservative values - with this representing just 10% market penetration at this point. Barrenjoey forecast 30% market penetration for Retts at peak sales (note we're already at 16% after 2 years for Retts).
If we reached 30% market penetration for PMD, PDD and Angelman we'd be talking about AU$6 billion EBITDA.
So what's the PE for a company with a $2 billion EBITDA growing at 50% per annum? At least 40. So that would be a $80 billion market cap by 2030.
Once we reach peak sales (which he forecast at 2033) with a 30% market penetration and a $6 billion EBITDA we'd be at $120 billion even with a 30 PE.
Note we still haven't talked about all the other indications Neuren is potentially targeting. These could more than double the above numbers.
$80 billion market cap would be $600 a share. Double this for the other indications that could also be approved by 2030 we're talking $1,200 a share or more.
So you might not need to wait until 2050 to get your $500 a share...
NEU Price at posting:
$14.60 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)