All valid points but there are always exceptions to the rule and I think we are dealing with the exception here - 2591 is not a run of the mill drug, it is something very special. Beyond that, there is plenty of capital sitting on the sidelines ready to be deployed and there are revenue streams facing patent cliffs that need replenishing, both of which are positive for Neuren in my view..
I know JP has stated that the focus is on Neurodevelopmental Disorders but 2591 does so much more (in pre-clinical studies) and has the potential to treat Neurodegenerative conditions. In my view, we really don't yet know the full extend of its efficacy range/potential.
I think on a fundamental level, the MOA for 2591 lends itself to a proper crack at TBI, Alzheimers, Parkinsons, Autism Spectrum Disorders and a range of other Neurodevelopmental/Neurodegenerative conditions, as a primary or adjunct treatment.
Even if you restrict the drug to Neurodevelopmental conditions, the value proposition and potential is astronomical.
While I appreciate that JP has said they are only looking at Orphan Neurodevelopmental conditions, there is nothing to restrict any interested parties from expanding the scope. In fact, it would make economic sense to do so - you just have to be flexible with pricing.
If you make some assumptions, such as pricing 2591 at the same level as Trofinetide ($375k USD), then you could easily drop the price by 90% and still make astronomical money if you expanded the scope to Neurodegenerative conditions and increased the patient population for the drug exponentially.
I keep coming back to the MOA - abnormal Microglial activity and inflammation seem to underpin an enormous number of neurological conditions and this drug addresses those issues and in doing so improves cognition, memory, learning, motor function and normalises aberrant behaviours. Not only could it be a treatment for neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative conditions, it could arguably be taken prophylactically to reduce inflammation and pre-emptively maintain normal/optimal cognition, memory and learning capabilities. I would take it in a heartbeat and I suspect many on here would do the same, much like you take fish oil tablets or vitamins to maintain optimal physical well-being.
I just don't know if I have seen anything else like 2591 that has such an unbelievable range of possibilities/promise, possibly with the exception of stem cell therapies. I think Big Pharma will be alive to this promise and won't be hamstrung by our current focus on treating Orphan Neurodevelopmental conditions. Money is money and if they can make more by taking a different approach, then they will.
Very much understand the point you are making Hottod and its hard to argue with the facts but I looked at some of the biggest Pharma deals ever and from memory, the average transaction value of largest 25 Pharma mergers/acquisitions in the last 10 years is $30.53b USD.
I understand that people will laugh at me or roll their eyes but I think 2591 is extraordinarily special and $30b USD is absolutely not beyond the realms of possibility. I think JP and others are correct in saying that 2591 in the 4 P2 indications are worth 5 times Trofinetide and if Reata was worth $7.2b USD, then 5x gets us to $36b USD for just the 4 indications, without looking at the undisclosed indications or any other treatment possibilities. There is some commentary about the Reata purchase being over-egged and if you accept that as true and say fair value relies on a more appropriate multiple (3x as opposed to 4.8x peak sales), then you still get a value of $22.5b USD for just the 4 indications. How much are the undisclosed indications worth in addition? How much is the possibility of treating other ASD's worth in addition? How much is the prospect of treating Neurodegenerative conditions worth in addition?
Obviously the SP does not reflect my optimism, so my view is fantastical at present. Notwithstanding, I maintain my optimism and am yet to hear a convincing argument in the alternative - accepting your valid points about TO premiums.
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