I can't speak to the technical science and the reason's why the probability of success is higher but broadly speaking:
The P3 trial has to replicate the P2 trial - this is the same approach taken with Trofinetide/Daybue and it was successful in that instance, so the logic is that it will be successful again. If you have done it once, you should be able to do it again. The really positive thing for us (and KJK aluded to this in his recent posts about POS) is that we have already done it three times in P2 trials. Granted not against placebo but the findings are consistent, so puts us in a strong position.
Again, not technical, but I think of 2591 and Trofinetide as Brothers - they are related, have a similar MOA and likely to be very similar in both theory and practice, so success in one, will likely be experienced by the other. Not a universal rule in families but in my mind, Trofinetide and NNZ 2591 are the Johns brothers of Rugby League fame. Matty (Trofinetide) came through first and was great. Joey (2591) is the better of the two and "immortal" is not bad analogy in my view for NNZ 2591, given the potential of the drug.
I think they are two big reasons for why people feel the odds of success are high.
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