Agree ashgood123 - you're right there's a significant contradiction there. If the market size for PMD is truly one tenth the size of Retts, it's not reasonable to assume the pricing would also be lower than Daybue. A $350,000 slightly lower pricing is only a reasonable assumption if you assume the market is larger than Retts. You can choose larger population and lower pricing, or smaller population and higher pricing, but not reasonably both at the same time.
As a comparison, Soleno's new drug for Prader-Willi is priced at $466,000, with 8,000 - 10,000 estimated patients (slightly more than Retts).
And that 58% persistence rate looks like it was pulled out of an Acadia report on Daybue. I guess there is some logic to that - but as we all here know, that logic only applies if you know next to nothing about NNZ-2591 and Daybue.
Overall still looks like they're cherry picking numbers to build a backwards-calculated valuation.
I guess it's always hard to prove that any number is the right number. It's just curious that every number we see in these analysts valuations tends to always be unjustifiably far towards the 'conservative' end. To a degree that creates produces meaningless valuations I'd argue.
This is backed up by your point about analysts all using $100k to $150k for Trofinitide pricing, before presumably being 'blindsided' when the real pricing came out as 2-3x. If you'd reviewed the normal pricing for orphan drugs, as some did, a $300k+ price tag was completely predictable.
Its one thing to be conservative, but its quite another to put in numbers that are so obviously invalid or unrealistic. Those 15% to 20% success rates Macquarie appear to have used can't be justified on any basis.
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