Somewhat unfortunately I agree with you and this is one of the reasons why I think corporate activity will occur in first half of 2024. If BP act relatively quickly they could get the company for around $50 IMO. As has been discussed here before by some pretty smart folks NEU could well have a share price around $50 by end of 2024 if the remaining 3 phase 2 trials produce positive results and Daybue continues on its merry way etc. A successful takeover offer at that stage then becomes $100+ IMO.
So on one hand it seems crazy to accept $50 in the near future but as you have alluded to that decision will be made by a relative handful of people with significant skin in the game who have different goals/expectations and outcome measures than most. If the other phase 2 results aren't positive then $50 here and now looks pretty good I would say.
My personal financial model for guesstimating NEU fair value is a DCF hybrid type arrangement that has had some significant input from this forum over the years would you believe. I am actually very grateful to quite a few posters here - the model has proved uncannlly accurate as the company is further and further derisked. The single variable that changes the outcome value the most is chance of success of the various binary hurdles that NEU has to jump. It was interesting rewatching the interview from Jon from Dec 18 that I referred to in my previous post. His response when asked about the PMS phase 2 results - he almost laughed and said "yeah we couldn't really have asked for better results." Make no mistake the results have surprised even the brains trust IMO - and as I have noted before they seemed to my eye increasingly confident as the trial unfolded. He goes on to highlight the consistency of the results and the recurring theme of improved communication amongst patients in the trial and the importance of this.
If you look at reasons why drugs fail phase 2 trials there are essentially 3 reasons: 1. Not safe/tolerated 2. Poor efficacy 3. Not enough $$ to be made to make further R+D worthwhile. It is pretty clear that NNZ-2591 is not going to fail for reasons 1 and 3, which leaves efficacy as the stumbling point. What weighting you now attribute to chance of success in the other indications given PMS result is up to each individual - I personally think each remaining phase 2 trial is now > 80% chance of returning a positive result given the similarities in the syndromes and the strength of the animal models and the PMS result.
If you plug 80% into my model for the other phase 2s you actually get some crazy numbers that I don't really want to put in writing on a public forum but similar to other numbers that have begun to be touted here they make a share price of $100 look cheap. AIMO.
Apologies for the long rambling posts on a Sunday but to say I am excited about NEU's prospects in 2024 is an understatement!!!
NEU Price at posting:
$24.11 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)