Correct. And therein lies the flaw in the model. In 5 years time PW for example will either be worth $zero because it failed somewhere along the line or $squillions because its approved and on the market. You can model the future value of the approved drug and using assumed percentage rates of success at all the intervening stages discount to back to a value today. Its misleading to say it will be worth $55 in 5 years when that time line takes us beyond the point of a binary outcome.
Neuren Media and Analyst Coverage, page-718
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