I think there are a few things happening. Most firms will have a...

I think there are a few things happening. Most firms will have a 'biotech' analyst, but this does not make them an expert on all things biotech, even less so the individual prospects of specific rare diseases or types of diseases.

Even on this forum we have been discussing what discount rate to use, what will trof ex NA be sold for and when will sales start, what will 2591 be sold for and when will sales start, what penetration for 2591 on various indications, what will growth in penetration be, % chance of success/failure, etc etc etc. An analyst faced with this much uncertainty almost has to go ultra-conservative lest they end up looking like a fool in vast majority of cases. When you look at history of neurodevelopmental drugs you would be hard pressed to blame them too. I think their price targets are reasonable from a commercial standpoint and given their uncertainty. I think it is good that Wilsons analyst gave an unrisked estimate of $100 per share but I think most here agree that even that is probably low balling us if we get to that point.