Neuren Media and Analyst Coverage, page-840

I was assuming a growth rate of 250 new patients per quarter enrolled for Daybue, which was in line with what some people here were suggesting was achievable after Acadia reported over 800 patients enrolled 6 months after they began first sales. Given the huge resources being poured into getting new people into the program by Acadia, I thought that was a reasonable rate of growth of sales. NEU's Investor Presentation on 8th Nov showed a total number of potential patients in the USA of 6,000 to 9,000 compared with the currently identified number of 4,500. If I slow down the growth rate to 100 per quarter and increase the maximum to 6,000, and stretch out the receipt of milestone payments accordingly, that reduces the NPV of DCF for Daybue alone (without any contribution from NNZ 2591) from $50.33 to $48.63/share. We do not reach the maximum number of potential Retts patience within the 10 year time frame of my model.