I think that MST Access is more likely to be right on this, as it was engaged by Neuren. MST states that the ACAD agreement includes “payments over CY22/23 on FDA approval and market entry”.
Also, in the results conference last week, Jon Pilcher talked about expected payments based on the assumption that the FDA approves trofinetide and that the product is launched.
It’s possible that NDA filing will trigger a payment, but it looks likely that the first payment will be due on FDA approval which, if all goes well, could be next November or December.
Neuren Media and Analyst Coverage, page-8
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